The Points Standard

Program Guides

How Welcome Bonuses Really Work (and How to Value Them)

Published 2026-07-02The Points Standard editorial team
How we make money & how we rank: rankings are set by the Standard Score, never by compensation. Some card links may become referral links; that never changes a card's score or position. Full disclosure. Last reviewed: 2026-07-02.
Colourful confetti falling against a clear blue sky
Photo by Damiano Lingauri on Unsplash

The welcome bonus is the single largest line in most cards' first-year value — and the most misleadingly advertised number in the industry. Here's how to read one properly.

The anatomy of a bonus

A typical Canadian offer: "Earn up to 60,000 points." The load-bearing words are up to. That total usually decomposes into:

  • A chunk for hitting a minimum spend in the first 3 months (say, $3,000–$7,500).
  • A chunk dripped monthly for hitting a spend target each month (the Cobalt model).
  • Sometimes a chunk for keeping the card past year one — deliberately placed after your first annual fee renews.

Each structure changes the real value. A drip bonus requires twelve months of discipline; an anniversary bonus is really a year-two retention offer priced into year-one marketing.

Valuing a bonus in dollars

Points × our index valuation = gross value. Then subtract:

  1. The annual fee (unless genuinely waived — check whether "first year free" requires a fee-bearing companion product).
  2. Forced spend friction. If a $6,000 minimum spend pushes you beyond your natural spending, the excess isn't free — you're buying points.
  3. The earn you gave up on your existing card during the qualification period.

That's the number we publish as first-year net value on every card page.

The rules that catch people

  • One welcome bonus per lifetime policies (Amex has enforced this in various forms) — burning a bonus on a mistimed application has a real cost.
  • Returned/refunded purchases don't count toward minimum spend.
  • Annual fees don't count toward minimum spend either.
  • Quebec residents often see different offer structures.

When a great bonus is a bad reason

A bonus is one year; earn rates and fees are forever. A card with a 9/10 bonus and 4/10 ongoing value is a card you'll be cancelling in 13 months — fine if that's the plan, expensive if it isn't. Our Standard Score weights first-year value at 30% for exactly this reason: big, but not decisive.